Research
Heat pump adoption in the US, tracked
Three federal surveys, one question asked the same way each time: what is the main thing heating this home?
Written by HYRE HVAC Research Desk Primary-source research, data analysis and fact checking
The finding
Heat pump adoption in the US rose from 9.0% of occupied homes in 2009 to 13.9% in 2020, about 17.2 million homes heated mainly by one.
That is roughly 6.9 million more homes in eleven years. The growth is real but lopsided: 27.6% of Southern homes heat with a heat pump, against 4.3% in the Midwest and 4.7% in the Northeast.
How many US homes heat with a heat pump?
13.9% of occupied homes in 2020, or about 17.2 million. That is the share whose main heating equipment is a heat pump, as reported to EIA’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Homes that use a heat pump only as a backup, or only for cooling, are not counted here.
Most of these are ducted systems. 13.1% of homes heat with a central heat pump and 0.9% with a ductless mini-split. For what each one is, see how a heat pump works and ductless vs ducted heat pumps.
The trend is steady rather than sudden. The share was 9.0% (± 0.3) in 2009, 11.3% (± 0.7) in 2015 and 13.9% (± 0.2) in 2020. The figures in brackets are standard errors. The 2015 survey had a much smaller sample (5,686 homes against 18,496 in 2020), so its estimates are less precise.
What changed between 2009 and 2020?
Where are heat pumps growing fastest?
In the South, which was already the heat pump region. The Southern share rose from 18.4% to 27.6%. Mild winters suit the equipment. The electric vs gas price ratio also favors heat pumps most in the South.
The cold regions moved, but from almost nothing. The Northeast went from 2.2% to 4.7% and the Midwest from 2.6% to 4.3%. The West sits in between at 7.5%.
HyreHVAC analysis: at the 2009-2020 pace, a Northeastern home is still far more likely to heat with gas or oil than with a heat pump for years to come. Our Heat Pump Readiness Index scores each state on why.
The 2020 survey cannot show what happened after 2020. Federal rebates, the 2025 refrigerant change and new cold-climate models all arrived later. RECS runs every few years, and this page will add the next cycle when EIA releases it.
Which homes are most likely to have a heat pump?
New ones, and manufactured homes. 21.2% of homes built from 2010 to 2020 heat with a heat pump, against 7.5% of homes built before 1970. Builders choose the system at construction, so new stock shows the direction of the market before old stock does.
Manufactured homes had the biggest jump of any housing type: 13.5% in 2009 to 24.0% in 2020. Our manufactured housing HVAC study looks at those homes in detail. Large apartment buildings also rose sharply, from 5.3% to 13.9%.
Renters caught up with owners. In 2009 rented homes were far less likely to have a heat pump (4.6% against 11.2%). By 2020 the gap had nearly closed (13.2% against 14.3%).
What is the heat pump share in each group, by survey year?
| Group | 2009 | 2015 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All US homes | 9.0% (± 0.3) | 11.3% (± 0.7) | 13.9% (± 0.2) |
| Region: South | 18.4% (± 0.8) | 21.1% (± 1.7) | 27.6% (± 0.7) |
| Region: West | 5.6% (± 0.6) | 8.3% (± 1.0) | 7.5% (± 0.5) |
| Region: Northeast | 2.2% (± 0.4) | 3.9% (± 1.0) | 4.7% (± 0.4) |
| Region: Midwest | 2.6% (± 0.3) | 3.9% (± 0.8) | 4.3% (± 0.4) |
| Mobile home | 13.5% (± 1.9) | 10.4% (± 2.2) | 24.0% (± 1.8) |
| Single-family detached | 10.3% (± 0.5) | 13.7% (± 0.9) | 13.7% (± 0.3) |
| Single-family attached | 9.7% (± 1.6) | 10.7% (± 1.6) | 11.1% (± 0.8) |
| Apartment, 2-4 units | 2.8% (± 0.7) | 6.1% (± 1.4) | 10.5% (± 0.9) |
| Apartment, 5+ units | 5.3% (± 0.9) | 5.9% (± 1.1) | 13.9% (± 0.8) |
| Owner-occupied | 11.2% (± 0.5) | 13.7% (± 0.9) | 14.3% (± 0.3) |
| Renter-occupied | 4.6% (± 0.6) | 7.4% (± 0.8) | 13.2% (± 0.4) |
| Of homes heated mainly by electricity | 25.6% (± 1.0) | 28.8% (± 1.6) | 40.4% (± 0.6) |
Share of occupied homes whose main heating equipment is a heat pump. Standard errors in brackets, in percentage points.
2009 and 2015 have one heat pump code; 2020 splits central and ductless, which are combined here so the years compare.
Does the age of the home matter?
| Year the home was built | Heat pump is main heat (2020) |
|---|---|
| Before 1950 | 5.1% (± 0.4) |
| 1950-1969 | 9.4% (± 0.5) |
| 1970-1989 | 16.2% (± 0.6) |
| 1990-2009 | 18.2% (± 0.6) |
| 2010-2020 | 21.2% (± 1.0) |
RECS 2020. Newer homes are far more likely to heat with a heat pump.
How did we calculate these figures?
We downloaded the RECS 2009, 2015 and 2020 public use microdata from EIA on October 26, 2026: 12,083, 5,686 and 18,496 responding homes. Each file carries survey weights that scale the sample to all occupied US homes (113.6 million, 118.2 million and 123.5 million).
A home counts when its main space heating equipment (EQUIPM) is a heat pump. In 2020 that is code 4 (central) or 13 (ductless); in 2009 and 2015 it is code 4, which covered both. Homes with no heating are in the base, as EIA does.
Each cycle ships replicate weights. 2020 uses the plain sum of squared deviations, which reproduces EIA’s published errors. 2015 (96 weights) and 2009 (244 weights) use Fay’s method with a coefficient of 0.5, as EIA documents for those files.
The 2020 national figure, 13.9%, matches the figure our other RECS studies publish from the same file.
One script reads the three files and writes every number on this page, the table and the CSV. The script and the raw files are kept with the study.
What can this data not tell you?
RECS is not annual. Sales since 2020 are not in this data. Shipment figures from manufacturers exist, but they count units sold, not homes heated, so we do not mix them in.
A home with a gas furnace and a heat pump on a dual-fuel setup reports one main system. Secondary heat pumps are not counted.
5,686 homes against 18,496 in 2020. Some 2015 subgroups move in ways the 2009-2020 trend does not, and that is noise, not a reversal.
Only the 2020 cycle was designed to give state estimates. Regions are the finest level that compares across all three years.
How should you cite this study?
Please cite it as: HyreHVAC Research Desk, “Heat pump adoption in the US, tracked,” hyrehvac.com/research/heat-pump-adoption/, data retrieved October 26, 2026, from EIA RECS 2009, 2015 and 2020. The charts may be reused with that credit and a link to this page. The full table is in the CSV below.
Questions
What percentage of US homes have a heat pump?
Is heat pump adoption growing?
Which region has the most heat pumps?
Does this include mini-splits?
Why does the data stop in 2020?
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HYRE HVAC Research Desk
Primary-source research, data analysis and fact checking
We are a research desk, not a sales floor. We read the federal microdata file, the statute or the manufacturer data sheet ourselves, and we publish the figure with the document it came from and the date we retrieved it.
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