HyreHVAC

Research

Original HVAC research

Original analysis of how American homes are heated and cooled, computed from primary federal data.

Updated September 2026 · Data as of RECS 2020 public use microdata, v7

88.7% of US homes have cooling RECS 2020
13.9% heat with a heat pump Central and ductless combined
82.0% have ductwork already The precondition for a central system

What this is

HyreHVAC publishes 13 original studies of how American homes are heated and cooled, computed from primary federal data such as EIA’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS).

Every study names its source files, publishes its method and carries the standard error on each estimate. Figures we calculate are labeled as calculations.

Research is credited to the HyreHVAC Research Desk, not to an individual.

Which states have the most homes without air conditioning?

Share of households with no air conditioning by state, 2020AK93.1ME29.6VT33.0NH22.3WA47.5ID19.4MT34.9ND7.1MN5.7IL4.0WI7.6MI13.4NY12.3RI10.0MA12.8OR23.7NV8.0WY29.3SD8.0IA2.8IN5.7OH6.5PA9.2NJ3.5CT10.4CA27.6UT8.1CO18.3NE5.3MO4.8KY5.1WV10.9VA5.4MD8.6DE3.0AZ5.8NM15.0KS6.8AR6.6TN6.5NC9.4SC4.9DC6.7OK4.0LA7.4MS7.1AL6.5GA4.8HI43.0TX5.0FL4.2% of households0.03.714.933.559.693.1Square-root color scale
Households with no air conditioning of any kind, 2020: Neither central equipment nor a window or portable unit. HyreHVAC calculation from EIA RECS 2020. Full study, all 51 jurisdictions →

Alaska, by share, but the state list is not a climate map. Whether an American home has air conditioning varies more between states than almost any other home technology. Alaska is at 93.1% without cooling; New Jersey is at 3.5%. The national figure of 11.3% describes almost nowhere.

The entry that does the most work is Hawaii, at 43.0% without cooling in a state with one of the three highest cooling loads in the country. Any explanation of American cooling that rests on climate alone has to account for that, and none of them do.

Which HVAC studies have we published?

97 / 39 Flagship · Annual The Heat Pump Readiness Index Which states can actually electrify, scored on ductwork and running cost for all 51 jurisdictions. The barrier is not cold weather; it is cheap natural gas. Read the page 11.3% RECS cycle The cooling divide The 14.0 million American households with no air conditioning, cut by income, tenure, housing type and actual cooling load, with a test of whether climate explains them. Read the page 3.28 Annual The number that decides whether a heat pump saves money One ratio settles the running-cost question. Nationally a heat pump must beat a seasonal COP of 3.28; in the hardest state it is 6.11. Read the page 83% Certification data Do cold-climate heat pumps actually work? Measured across 12,562 certified units. Capacity holds at 83% down to 5°F, but the median COP there is 1.97, which is why both sides of this argument sound right. Read the page 17 + 4 Regulatory · CFR-tracked One country, three efficiency standards Federal law sets a different minimum air conditioner in 17 Southeast jurisdictions, 4 Southwest states and everywhere else. It bans installation, not sale. Read out of 10 CFR 430.32(c) and part 429. Read the page GWP 700 Regulatory · Live The refrigerant change nobody told homeowners about R-410A is out for new equipment. The widely reported 2026 installation deadline was removed, and most advice still repeats it. Read the page 22.3 yr Flagship · RECS cycle How long HVAC equipment actually lasts Survival functions fitted to RECS 2020 for seven equipment classes. The median central furnace reaches 22.3 years, and the shipment shortcut that gives 9.8 is wrong by nearly a factor of two. Read the page 12.2 yr Derived · Method The repair-or-replace threshold, costed The trade’s 50% rule has no evidence base. Derived from the fitted survival functions it is a curve, not a constant, and it passes through 50% at 12.2 years and is wrong either side of it. Read the page 4 / 51 Census · Dated snapshot Which states have actually launched their rebate programs DOE publishes no open/closed map, so we built one: all 51 jurisdictions, from each administrator’s own page. Only 4 are open without qualification, and 78% of the money sits where nobody can apply. Read the page approximately 5% Literature review Does annual maintenance actually extend equipment life? DOE’s review of 44 field studies says the durability evidence does not exist, and that a tune-up alone is worth approximately 5%, not the thirty percent advertised. Read the page 18.0% EPA + RECS Wildfire smoke and the homes that cannot filter it The states with the worst smoke exposure have the least filtration infrastructure, and in 2023 the smoke moved to states with no plan for it. Read the page All 50 Regulatory EPA 608: the one credential every technician must hold Federal, identical in all 50 states, required to touch refrigerant or buy it, and almost no homeowner asks for it. Read the page 8 states Own database What an HVAC license actually means 10,417 verified license records across 8 state authorities. Eight incompatible credential systems, and one register that cannot be checked at all. Read the page

What standards does every study follow?

Primary sources only

Statistics are traced to the organization that produced them. We do not repeat a figure because other sites repeat it, and we do not cite a secondary source when the primary file is downloadable.

Calculation is labeled as calculation

Where we compute a share, a rank or a rate from source data, it says so. Nothing we derive is presented as a reported statistic, and nothing third-party is presented as our research.

Every estimate carries its uncertainty

These are survey estimates, not counts. Standard errors are computed from the replicate weights the federal file supplies and are printed alongside the estimate wherever the number is small enough for the difference to matter.

We validate against the agency

Before publishing anything derived from a federal microdata file, we reproduce the agency’s own published tables from it. The RECS machinery behind these studies reproduces EIA’s published state air conditioning estimates and relative standard errors for all 51 jurisdictions.

Thin cells are suppressed, not printed

An estimate with a relative standard error above 30% is reported as "too few respondents". That is EIA’s own rule, applied to our derived cells rather than only to theirs, and where a suppressed cell would have made a good headline we say so on the page.

Nothing is typed by hand

Every figure and every mark on every chart is generated from one dataset by script. A number in a sentence and the same number in the table below it cannot disagree, and the next survey cycle redraws every study.

Limitations sit on the page, not in a footnote

Each study carries a limitations section. Where a result depends on an outlier, a definition or a reporting quirk, we say so in the finding itself rather than below it.

Attributed to the desk, never to a person

Research here is published under the HyreHVAC Research Desk. We do not put an individual byline on original analysis, and we do not claim first-hand experience the organization cannot evidence.

Where can you find every figure in one place?

The studies above each answer one question in depth. HVAC statistics collects every figure they produce into a single page: around 95 of them across cooling, heating, heat pumps, equipment performance, refrigerant, prices, air quality and the trade.

Each is labeled with what kind of claim it is: a figure the agency published, a figure we computed from the agency’s microdata, or a provision read from a federal rule.

It also lists the widely circulated HVAC numbers we will not repeat, and why. Rebate and incentive figures have their own page: HVAC rebate statistics. Our editorial policy covers how we check and correct.

Can you cite or reuse this research?

Yes. Journalists, researchers and analysts are welcome to cite and reproduce these findings, including the charts. We ask for a link to the study page, because the methodology, the standard errors and the limitations live there and a figure quoted without them is easy to misread.

Every study names its source files precisely enough to be checked independently. The extraction code behind them is deliberately boring and reproducible: download the federal file, run the script, get the same numbers.

If you find an error, we would rather hear it than not. Corrections are made on the page with a dated note, not silently.

Questions

Where do the figures in HyreHVAC research come from?
Primary federal sources, chiefly the EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey, the federal government’s household-level census of how homes use energy. Statistics are traced to the organization that produced them; a figure is not repeated because other sites repeat it, and a secondary source is not cited where the primary file exists.
Why does every estimate carry a standard error?
Because these are survey estimates rather than counts, and a percentage without its uncertainty invites a claim the data cannot support. Standard errors are computed from the replicate weights the federal file supplies and are printed alongside the estimate.
What happens when a cell has too few respondents?
An estimate with a relative standard error above 30% is reported as "too few respondents" rather than printed. That is EIA’s own suppression rule, applied to derived cells rather than only to the agency’s published tables.
Who is the author of the research?
The HyreHVAC Research Desk. Research here is not published under an individual byline and does not claim first-hand experience, and every figure and chart mark is generated from the dataset by script rather than typed by hand.

Written and audited by

HYRE HVAC Research Desk

Primary-source research, data analysis and fact checking

We are a research desk, not a sales floor. We read the federal microdata file, the statute or the manufacturer data sheet ourselves, and we publish the figure with the document it came from and the date we retrieved it.

Where a number cannot be traced to a primary source, we publish the shorter page and say what we could not verify.

The counts below are generated from the published pages themselves, last counted September 28, 2026, and they are what we have actually published rather than what we intend to.

13
studies published
12
federal sources read and cited
8
studies published with their full dataset as CSV
51
jurisdictions reproduced against EIA’s own tables

How this desk works

  • Primary sources only. Federal data comes from the agency that collects it, in the file that agency publishes. We do not cite an article that cites a source; we download the source and compute the figure ourselves.
  • We validate against the agency before we publish. First, we use each federal microdata file to reproduce the agency’s own published tables. Our cooling research reproduces EIA’s state estimates and standard errors for all 51 jurisdictions. That check caught a variance formula that was off by a factor of four.
  • Every estimate carries its uncertainty. These are survey figures, not counts. Standard errors are computed from the replicate weights the federal file supplies and printed beside the estimate. An estimate too imprecise to publish is reported as such rather than printed.
  • Nothing is typed by hand. Prose, tables and charts all read from one dataset built by script, so a number in a sentence and the same number in the table below it cannot disagree.
  • We publish the data, not just the conclusion. 8 of our 13 studies offer the full computed table as a CSV download on the page, so you can check the analysis or disagree with it. A study without a row-level dataset gets no download link and claims none in its structured data.
  • We correct in public. Where we have published a figure wrongly we fix the figure, rewrite any analysis that rested on it rather than patching the number underneath it, and leave a dated correction note on the page.
  • We do not install or sell HVAC equipment, and we take no payment for placement, ranking or a favorable mention. Nobody buys a position on this site.

Data as of RECS 2020 public use microdata, v7. Authorship on this site is organizational: the analysis belongs to the desk rather than to a named individual, and we do not publish credentials we do not hold. Our editorial policy sets out how we source, date and correct what we publish.

Sources & retrieval dates

EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2020 , Public use microdata file v7. 18,496 responding households, weighted to represent 123.53 million occupied primary housing units. Standard errors from the 60 replicate weights supplied with the file. Retrieved September 4, 2026.

Working out what your own home needs

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