Comparison
Heat pump vs gas furnace: the running-cost crossover
Not “which is better”, but how much more a heat pump can cost before lower bills stop paying the difference back.
Written by HYRE HVAC Research Desk Primary-source research and analysis
Audited by HYRE HVAC Research Desk Fact check against EIA, EPA and NAHB sources
The short answer
It depends on your state’s prices. At a seasonal COP of 3.0, a heat pump costs less to run than a 95% gas furnace in 21 of 51 jurisdictions and more in 30 (EIA 2024 prices, RECS 2020 use).
Where it wins, 15 years of savings justify a premium of $137 to $3,554. Nationally it runs $45 a year more.
What can a running-cost comparison settle?
One thing: how much of the price gap comes back in bills. Almost every heat-pump-versus-furnace page compares the technologies.
That comparison has an answer and it is not very useful, because both machines heat a house competently and the reader is not choosing between abstractions — they are holding two prices and deciding whether to pay the difference.
HYRE HVAC Research Desk analysis: The running-cost comparison settles exactly one thing: how much of that price difference comes back. It cannot settle whether to buy a heat pump, because three of the largest terms in that decision sit outside it.
A heat pump replaces the air conditioner as well, so in a house that needs both the comparison is not a furnace against a heat pump at all. Comfort and cold-weather capacity are separate engineering questions. And carbon is not a dollar.
What we do here is take the running-cost difference as far as it goes, express it as a threshold in dollars, and stop.
If your own two quotes differ by less than the threshold for your state, the running-cost case supports the heat pump.
If they differ by more, it does not, and the argument for the heat pump has to be made on the other three grounds or not at all.
The boundary with our research: The efficiency a heat pump has to reach to break even is derived, with the full arithmetic, in the electricity-to-gas price ratio study. This page takes that threshold as given and asks what it is worth in dollars per year.
How do a heat pump and a gas furnace compare at a glance?
| Air-source heat pump | Gas furnace at 95% AFUE | |
|---|---|---|
| What you pay for energy | Electricity: 16.48¢/kWh national average, $48.30 per million Btu | Gas: $14.50 per thousand cubic feet, $13.98 per million Btu |
| What a million Btu of heat costs | $16.10 at a seasonal COP of 3.0 | $14.72 |
| National annual heating cost | $526 | $481 |
| Where it wins on running cost | 21 jurisdictions — led by MO, FL, HI, AZ | 30 jurisdictions — led by CT, MI, WI, NY |
| Also replaces | The air conditioner. One machine does both seasons. | Nothing. Cooling is a separate system and a separate price. |
| Cold-weather behavior | Capacity and efficiency fall as it gets colder. Median certified unit delivers a COP of 2.00 at 5°F. | Output does not vary with outdoor temperature. |
| Federal tax credit in 2026 | $0 — §25C closed for property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (Public Law 119-21) | $0 — same provision, Public Law 119-21 |
Prices are EIA 2024 residential averages. Annual costs are the HyreHVAC calculation described below, on RECS 2020 average household heating consumption of 34.4 million Btu.
The rows are not equally weighted. The last two are the ones that most often decide the purchase, and neither of them is a running-cost argument.
How is the running-cost difference calculated?
Source fact: EIA’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey puts average annual site energy for space heating at 34.4 million Btu per household that heats, across 123.53 million housing units. By census region the same table reports Northeast 47.5, Midwest 55.4, South 20.8, West 24.1 million Btu.
Source fact: EIA publishes residential electricity and natural gas prices by state. For 2024 the national averages are 16.48 cents per kilowatt-hour and $14.50 per thousand cubic feet, which on a common energy basis are $48.30 and $13.98 per million Btu.
HyreHVAC calculation: For each state: the furnace burns the regional consumption figure and is billed at that state’s gas price.
The heat pump has to deliver the same heat — the regional figure times the furnace’s 95% efficiency, because that is what actually reached the rooms — and buys it at that state’s electricity price divided by a seasonal COP of 3.0.
The difference is the annual saving. Multiplied by the 15-year service-life horizon, undiscounted, it is the most the heat pump may cost extra.
Every assumption in that, stated plainly: The seasonal COP of 3.0 is the single largest one and the section below tests it.
The 95% furnace is the current mainstream specification; against an 80% furnace the heat pump does considerably better. Consumption is a regional average, not your house.
Prices are average retail, which includes fixed charges recovered through the volumetric rate, and the rate that actually decides a bill is the marginal one.
The horizon is undiscounted, which flatters the heat pump: a dollar saved in year 14 is not worth a dollar today.
Which assumption decides the answer?
The seasonal COP. Change it by half a point and the map redraws. This is the number to argue about, and it is the number the marketing material is least careful with.
Source fact: Across 12,562 distinct certified outdoor units in EPA’s ENERGY STAR heat pump database, the median coefficient of performance at 5°F is 2.00. Only 0.9% of certified units exceed a COP of 2.5 at that temperature, and 51.9% exceed 2.0.
HyreHVAC analysis: A COP at 5°F is not a seasonal COP — a heat pump spends most of the season at far milder temperatures, where it does much better — so those figures are not a rebuttal of a seasonal 3.0.
What they are is a floor on the argument: in a climate where a meaningful share of the heating hours are near 5°F, a seasonal COP of 3.0 is optimistic, and the states where that is true are precisely the 30 where the calculation already says no.
The error compounds in the same direction as the answer.
HyreHVAC calculation, run five times: At a seasonal COP of 2.0, 1 jurisdictions favor the heat pump; At a seasonal COP of 2.5, 11 jurisdictions favor the heat pump.
At a seasonal COP of 3.0, 21 jurisdictions favor the heat pump; At a seasonal COP of 3.5, 28 jurisdictions favor the heat pump; At a seasonal COP of 4.0, 38 jurisdictions favor the heat pump.
Reasonable people can disagree about the COP; they cannot disagree about what each choice implies.
The useful next step: Ask the contractor for the certified HSPF2 of the specific matched combination being quoted, not of the outdoor unit, and ask what seasonal COP that implies at your design temperature. If the answer is a rated figure at 47°F, it is not an answer to this question.
Which fits your home: heat pump or gas furnace?
Buy the heat pump when
You are in one of the 21 jurisdictions where the annual difference is positive and the price gap between your two quotes is below the premium in the table — the recommendation is then straightforward, and it is the heat pump.
Or the air conditioner is being replaced in the same job. This is the case the running-cost table understates most badly: one machine is replacing two, and the correct comparison is a heat pump against a furnace plus an air conditioner, which is a different and much more favorable arithmetic.
Or the house has no gas service. Against electric resistance heat the question is not close: any heat pump with a COP above 1 wins, everywhere, always. Against propane or oil the comparison is also substantially more favorable than the gas case shown here.
Buy the gas furnace when
You are in one of the 30 jurisdictions where the heat pump costs more to run, the existing air conditioner is sound, and there is no non-financial reason driving the decision. Recommendation: replace the furnace with a furnace.
On 2024 prices this is the cheaper household outcome and it is not a close call in the worst states — WI at $342 a year, MI at $417 a year, CT at $496 a year.
Or the price gap between your two quotes exceeds the premium your state can justify. The heat pump may still be the right purchase — but it is being bought for comfort, cooling or carbon, and it should be discussed on those terms rather than on a payback that does not exist.
What is the crossover in each state?
| State | Region | Heating, MMBtu/yr | Gas furnace $/yr | Heat pump $/yr | Difference $/yr | Premium justified over 15 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | All homes | 34.4 | $481 | $526 | −$45 | none |
| MO | Midwest | 55.4 | $901 | $664 | +$237 | $3,554 |
| FL | South | 20.8 | $509 | $273 | +$236 | $3,538 |
| HI | West | 24.1 | $1,136 | $959 | +$177 | $2,660 |
| AZ | West | 24.1 | $476 | $333 | +$142 | $2,135 |
| LA | South | 20.8 | $329 | $226 | +$102 | $1,533 |
| NV | West | 24.1 | $434 | $335 | +$99 | $1,483 |
| GA | South | 20.8 | $365 | $272 | +$93 | $1,395 |
| AR | South | 20.8 | $323 | $238 | +$85 | $1,276 |
| AL | South | 20.8 | $374 | $293 | +$81 | $1,212 |
| TX | South | 20.8 | $361 | $288 | +$72 | $1,085 |
| SC | South | 20.8 | $339 | $275 | +$65 | $968 |
| NC | South | 20.8 | $329 | $273 | +$56 | $847 |
| MS | South | 20.8 | $309 | $259 | +$51 | $761 |
| OK | South | 20.8 | $281 | $236 | +$44 | $666 |
| OR | West | 24.1 | $365 | $329 | +$36 | $545 |
| UT | West | 24.1 | $306 | $273 | +$32 | $486 |
| VA | South | 20.8 | $309 | $278 | +$31 | $461 |
| WA | West | 24.1 | $296 | $266 | +$30 | $444 |
| KY | South | 20.8 | $273 | $247 | +$26 | $391 |
| WV | South | 20.8 | $306 | $291 | +$15 | $228 |
| WY | West | 24.1 | $288 | $279 | +$9 | $137 |
| DC | South | 20.8 | $331 | $342 | −$11 | none |
| MD | South | 20.8 | $324 | $345 | −$21 | none |
| DE | South | 20.8 | $296 | $320 | −$23 | none |
| TN | South | 20.8 | $216 | $240 | −$24 | none |
| NE | Midwest | 55.4 | $568 | $593 | −$25 | none |
| KS | Midwest | 55.4 | $702 | $728 | −$26 | none |
| ID | West | 24.1 | $198 | $258 | −$60 | none |
| OH | Midwest | 55.4 | $736 | $822 | −$86 | none |
| CO | West | 24.1 | $246 | $334 | −$88 | none |
| MT | West | 24.1 | $191 | $283 | −$92 | none |
| NM | West | 24.1 | $210 | $318 | −$107 | none |
| ND | Midwest | 55.4 | $480 | $592 | −$111 | none |
| IA | Midwest | 55.4 | $552 | $689 | −$137 | none |
| PA | Northeast | 47.5 | $624 | $783 | −$160 | none |
| SD | Midwest | 55.4 | $498 | $661 | −$163 | none |
| VT | Northeast | 47.5 | $794 | $966 | −$171 | none |
| NH | Northeast | 47.5 | $858 | $1,032 | −$173 | none |
| ME | Northeast | 47.5 | $868 | $1,071 | −$203 | none |
| IL | Midwest | 55.4 | $593 | $816 | −$223 | none |
| MN | Midwest | 55.4 | $569 | $794 | −$225 | none |
| NJ | Northeast | 47.5 | $605 | $853 | −$248 | none |
| IN | Midwest | 55.4 | $507 | $759 | −$252 | none |
| CA | West | 24.1 | $445 | $715 | −$270 | none |
| RI | Northeast | 47.5 | $992 | $1,263 | −$271 | none |
| AK | West | 24.1 | $273 | $555 | −$283 | none |
| MA | Northeast | 47.5 | $1,003 | $1,294 | −$291 | none |
| NY | Northeast | 47.5 | $760 | $1,077 | −$317 | none |
| WI | Midwest | 55.4 | $542 | $884 | −$342 | none |
| MI | Midwest | 55.4 | $575 | $992 | −$417 | none |
| CT | Northeast | 47.5 | $771 | $1,267 | −$496 | none |
HyreHVAC calculation. Heating consumption is the RECS 2020 census-region average for the region each state sits in; prices are EIA 2024 state residential averages; the heat pump runs at a seasonal COP of 3.0 against a 95% AFUE furnace.
Sorted by annual saving. "None" means the heat pump costs more to run in that jurisdiction, so no purchase premium is recovered from running cost at any price. It does not mean a heat pump is a bad machine there.
What does this calculation leave out?
RECS regional averages span everything from an apartment to a 3,000 square foot detached house — the same table puts homes over 3,000 sq ft at 61.2 million Btu against 14.5 for homes under 1,000. The shape of the answer holds; the dollar figures scale with your own consumption, which is on your bill.
Both EIA series are average revenue per unit sold, which spreads fixed monthly charges across volume. A household on a time-of-use tariff, a tiered tariff, or a utility heat-pump rate faces something different, and where a utility offers an electrification tariff that tariff is the right input rather than this table.
HyreHVAC does not install, service or sell HVAC equipment and holds no dataset of quotes or invoices. That is why this page publishes a threshold rather than a price: the premium is the number we can compute honestly, and your two quotes are the number only you have.
15 years of savings are added at face value. Discounting them at any positive rate reduces the justifiable premium, so every figure in the last column is an upper bound rather than a central estimate.
2024 averages. Residential gas prices in particular move — the national figure went from $15.40 to $14.50 per thousand cubic feet between 2023 and 2024. A comparison struck in a price spike reads differently, which is an argument for re-running it rather than for trusting any single year.
This is a price calculation and it assumes the equipment meets the load. Whether a given heat pump holds capacity at your design temperature is a sizing and product question, answered from the certified performance data rather than from a price table.
Questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace?
How much more can a heat pump cost before it stops being worth it?
Does the federal tax credit change the answer?
What if the air conditioner needs replacing too?
Why is the heat pump case worse in cold states?
What if I heat with propane, oil or electric resistance?
Where do these numbers come from?
Written and audited by
HYRE HVAC Research Desk
Primary-source research, data analysis and fact checking
We are a research desk, not a sales floor. We read the federal microdata file, the statute or the manufacturer data sheet ourselves, and we publish the figure with the document it came from and the date we retrieved it.
Where a number cannot be traced to a primary source, we publish the shorter page and say what we could not verify.
The counts below are generated from the published pages themselves, last counted September 28, 2026, and they are what we have actually published rather than what we intend to.
- 13
- studies published
- 12
- federal sources read and cited
- 8
- studies published with their full dataset as CSV
- 51
- jurisdictions reproduced against EIA’s own tables
How this desk works
- Primary sources only. Federal data comes from the agency that collects it, in the file that agency publishes. We do not cite an article that cites a source; we download the source and compute the figure ourselves.
- We validate against the agency before we publish. First, we use each federal microdata file to reproduce the agency’s own published tables. Our cooling research reproduces EIA’s state estimates and standard errors for all 51 jurisdictions. That check caught a variance formula that was off by a factor of four.
- Every estimate carries its uncertainty. These are survey figures, not counts. Standard errors are computed from the replicate weights the federal file supplies and printed beside the estimate. An estimate too imprecise to publish is reported as such rather than printed.
- Nothing is typed by hand. Prose, tables and charts all read from one dataset built by script, so a number in a sentence and the same number in the table below it cannot disagree.
- We publish the data, not just the conclusion. 8 of our 13 studies offer the full computed table as a CSV download on the page, so you can check the analysis or disagree with it. A study without a row-level dataset gets no download link and claims none in its structured data.
- We correct in public. Where we have published a figure wrongly we fix the figure, rewrite any analysis that rested on it rather than patching the number underneath it, and leave a dated correction note on the page.
- We do not install or sell HVAC equipment, and we take no payment for placement, ranking or a favorable mention. Nobody buys a position on this site.
Data as of EIA 2024 prices, RECS 2020 consumption. Authorship on this site is organizational: the analysis belongs to the desk rather than to a named individual, and we do not publish credentials we do not hold. Our editorial policy sets out how we source, date and correct what we publish.
Sources & retrieval dates
Run it on your own two quotes
State averages set the threshold. Your own rates and the specific equipment ratings settle it — the calculator takes both and does the same arithmetic on your numbers.