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Heat pump vs furnace, on your two rates

A 95% furnace at $1.20/therm against an HSPF2 8.1 heat pump at 16¢/kWh, on 60 million BTU of heat, is $758 against $1,185. The winner is the rates, not a slogan. Design-day capacity below freezing is a different question from seasonal running cost.

$758 vs $1,185 per year on the defaults 60 million BTU of annual heat. Furnace: load / AFUE / 100,000 BTU per therm × gas price. Heat pump: load / HSPF2 / 1,000 × kWh price. HSPF2 is BTU of heat per watt-hour. 1 therm = 100,000 BTU.

On the defaults the furnace is cheaper to run by $427 a year. Flip the electricity rate down or the gas rate up and the heat pump wins. Cold-climate HSPF2 and a dual-fuel switchover temperature are how you stop paying electric-resistance rates on the design day. §25C is $0 after 31 December 2025 — do not subtract $2,000 from the heat-pump column.

Load, two ratings, two rates

Annual heating load in million BTU. Nothing is emailed.

From a load calc or a bill converted to BTU. 60 is a worked example, not a national house.

— Cheaper to run
— Furnace, annual fuel
— Heat pump, annual electricity
— Gap

What this assumed —

Seasonal running cost, not design-day capacity. Dual-fuel switchover is not modelled. HyreHVAC does not sell equipment. §25C is $0 after 31 December 2025.

Questions this calculator answers

Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a furnace?
It depends on your gas price, your electricity price, AFUE and HSPF2. On 60 million BTU, 95% AFUE at $1.20/therm against HSPF2 8.1 at 16¢/kWh, the furnace is cheaper to run. Change the rates and the answer changes.
What is HSPF2?
Heating Seasonal Performance Factor, the 2023 test. BTU of heat delivered per watt-hour of electricity across a heating season. Higher is cheaper to run, all else equal.
Do heat pumps work in the cold?
Modern cold-climate models hold useful capacity well below freezing. The old “heat pumps do not work up north” rule no longer travels well. Capacity at your design temperature is the question to put on the proposal, separate from this seasonal running-cost comparison.
Is there still a federal heat-pump credit?
Not for property placed in service after 31 December 2025. Utility rebates are unaffected by that change.

Sources and methodology

Figures dated 23 August 2026. Last reviewed .

Related

  • SEER2 savings Cooling is a different rating on the same heat pump.
  • HVAC replacement cost Running cost sits next to the installed premium, without a vanished credit.
  • AC sizing A heat pump still has to be sized. The square-foot rule is not how.

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